Even a victory may not be enough to send the Palestinians through, but they look much more convincing going forward than their Tuesday opponents. Hong Kong have shown they can compete, but their opening two games suggest that they will have little possession in this match and having to defend for long stretches could come with a lot of fatigue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 45.86%. A win for Palestine had a probability of 27.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Palestine win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Palestine would win this match.

Result
Hong Kong	Draw	Palestine
45.86% ( -0.26)	26.32% ( 0.09)	27.82% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 50.16% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.98% (

-0.26)

54.02% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.55% (

-0.22)

75.45% (

0.22)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.5% (

-0.23)

23.5% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.46% (

-0.34)

57.54% (

0.34)

Palestine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.57% (

-0.01)

34.43% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.85% (

-0.01)

71.15% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Hong Kong 45.86%

Palestine 27.82%

Draw 26.32%

Hong Kong	Draw	Palestine
1-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.76% Total : 45.86%	1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.32%	0-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 27.82%