Paraguayan side Club Libertad will travel to Colombian outfit Atletico Junior for their last-16 first-leg tie in the Copa Sudamericana on Thursday.
The hosts have won just three of their last 10 matches across all competitions, in contrast to the visitors who have won seven games in the same period.
Match preview
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For the second successive season, Atletico Junior finished third in the Copa Libertadores group stages and have subsequently dropped down into the Copa Sudamericana.
Head coach Luis Amaranto Perea witnessed his side give up the lead in three of their group-stage matches, which in the end proved costly as the Sharks won just once and drew four of their six games, finishing two points behind second-placed River Plate, who progressed to the next round.
Junior have now failed to progress from the group stages in each of the last four seasons, but Perea is hopeful that his team can respond and reach the latter stages of the Copa Sudamericana.
The Sharks head into Thursday's fixture unbeaten in their last 12 home matches across all competitions. Their most recent fixture, however, was over a month ago, losing 4-3 on aggregate in the Categoria Primeira A Apertura semi-finals against Millonarios.
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Club Libertad, meanwhile, travel to Colombia on a real high after winning the Paraguayan Primeira Division Apertura for the first time in four years.
Daniel Garnero's men finished five points clear of their nearest challengers Olimpia, winning 12 of their 18 matches and accumulating 38 points.
Libertad now return to Copa Sudamericana action after a 46-day break from competitive football. The Gumarelo won four of their six Group F matches to finish at the summit, three points clear of Brazilian side Atletico Goianiense, who are the only team to have beaten them in the competition so far this campaign.
Garnero's men are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road across all competitions and they have scored 20 goals during this impressive run. Victory on Thursday would move them one step closer to reaching the semi-finals, which is the stage they got to the last time they competed in this tournament during the 2016-17 season.
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Team News
Atletico Junior boss Perea is unlikely to make too many changes to his starting lineup that lost 2-0 to Millonarios last month, which could see Larry Vasquez and Didier Moreno keep their places in central midfield.
Forward Miguel Borja, who has scored 14 goals so far this campaign on loan from Palmeiras, has returned from Copa America action with Colombia and could be in line to start up front ahead of Carmelo Valencia.
As for Club Libertad, they will be without experienced winger Antonio Bareiro as he continues to recover from a cruciate ligament rupture.
Garnero usually lines up with a 4-4-2 formation and the Argentine is likely to stick with the same system again on Thursday.
Former Benfica forward Oscar Cardozo, who has nine league goals so far this campaign, could be handed a start up front alongside either Carlos Ferreira, Alfio Oviedo or Rodrigo Bogarin.
Atletico Junior possible starting lineup:
Viera; Viafara, Ditta, Mera, Fuentes; Vasquez, Di.Moreno; Sambueza, Cetre, Hinestroza; Borja
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Silva; Piris, Baez, Barboza, Espinoza; Franco, R.Martinez, Mejia, Bogarin; Ferreira, Cardozo
We say: Atletico Junior 1-1 Club Libertad
There is little to separate Atletico Junior and Club Libertad and a score draw could be on the cards for the first leg in Barranquilla.
Both teams lost just once in their respective groups and may take a cautious approach to Thursday's match to ensure they are still in the tie for the second leg next week.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 39.94%. A win for Atletico Junior had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Atletico Junior win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.
