Atletico Mineiro can eliminate the reigning Copa do Brasil champions Sao Paulo on Thursday when the two sides meet in the second leg of that quarter-final tie from Arena MRV.
When these teams met in late August, Mineiro found a winner in second-half stoppage time to take a 1-0 lead into this decisive fixture.
Match preview
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A place in the Copa do Brasil semi-finals is within touching distance for Atletico Mineiro, who won their first away contest of the 2024 tournament the last time out.
If they can avoid defeat on Thursday, it would mark their first appearance in the final four of this competition since 2021, when they lifted the trophy.
Gabriel Milito's men have won consecutive matches in all competitions by a single goal and are unbeaten in their last four competitive fixtures away from home.
The Belo Horizonte side have not lost a Copa do Brasil fixture at home in normal time since Figueirense defeated them 2-1 in a 2018 third-round encounter, though Mineiro wound up advancing from that tie on penalties (5-4).
To this stage of the 2024 Brasileiro Serie A campaign, Mineiro have failed to win three home games when scoring the opening goal, accounting for six points dropped.
Galo are unbeaten in their last eight meetings across all competitions versus Sao Paulo, winning six of those encounters.
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The defending champions fell apart at the most inopportune moment of the opening leg, losing at home in this competition for the first time since the 2022 semi-finals against Flamengo (3-1).
Sao Paulo previously found themselves behind after the opening leg of a Copa do Brasil tie last year, losing 2-1 to Corinthians but following that up with a 2-0 victory in the return engagement as they went on to make the final and win it all.
Luis Zubeldia's men are winless in their last five Brasileiro Serie A matches away from home, losing four of those fixtures.
O Clube de Fe are unbeaten in their last five second-leg Copa do Brasil encounters, with their last such defeat occurring versus Sport Recife in the last 16 a year ago (3-1), though Sao Paulo advanced from that tie on penalties (5-3).
They have not been eliminated at this stage of a Copa do Brasil tournament since Fortaleza knocked them out at this stage in 2021, 5-3 on aggregate.
Tricolor Paulista have never beaten Atletico Mineiro since Arena MRV became the new home of Galo, with the previous Sao Paulo away victory against them occurring at Estadio Raimundo Sampaio during the 2016 domestic season (2-1).
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Team News
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Mineiro will not have Matias Zaracho available for the remainder of the season with a hernia issue, and Alisson Santana is doubtful due to a problem in his thigh.
Their captain Hulk, who played for the Sao Paulo youth team in the early 2000s, was back in the lineup in the opening leg of this tie for Galo, but he sat out of their previous league fixture with a minor calf strain and may not be available by Thursday.
Rodrigo Battaglia scored in the 92nd minute to give his side a 1-0 advantage heading into this decisive contest, and Everson made four stops to collect a clean sheet.
When these sides met in late August, Sao Paulo were without Pablo Maia, Ferreira and Moreira because of thigh problems, while Alisson is still recovering from a broken ankle.
Their right-back Igor Vinicius remains a doubt as he has struggled to return to full fitness since experiencing physical discomfort.
Luciano and Jonathan Calleri were the last two Sao Paulo players to find the back of the net for them in this competition when they defeated Goias in the opening leg of their round of 16 tie.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Saravia, Battaglia, Lyanco; Scarpa, Otavio, Franco, Arana; Bernard, Cadu, Paulinho
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Rafinha, Arboleda, Sabino, Welington; Bobadilla, Gustavo; Nestor, Luciano, Moura; Calleri
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Sao Paulo (Atletico Mineiro advance 2-0 on aggregate)
Over the past few weeks, Mineiro have found a level of consistency, and we believe that momentum will carry them beyond this phase of the tournament against a Sao Paulo side struggling to score in recent games.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
