Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Nacional0 - 0Sao Paulo
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Goals
for
for
50
We said: Nacional 1-1 Sao Paulo
Nacional have netted in seven straight matches heading into their Libertadores match with Sao Paulo, pointing to them halting the Brazilian side's run of clean sheets. However, the spoils could be shared between the in-form sides that have given little away heading into this week's first leg. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Sao Paulo |
28.5% ( 0.25) | 27.12% ( 0.32) | 44.38% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 48.25% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
