Vasco da Gama can book a place in the semi-finals of the Copa do Brasil for the first time in over a decade by avoiding defeat on Wednesday versus Athletico Paranaense at Arena de Baixada.
In the opening leg of this tie in August, Vasco scored twice in the final 10 minutes to claim a 2-1 come-from-behind victory.
Match preview
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For a second time in the Copa do Brasil this year, El Paraense are in a must-win situation heading into the decisive second leg.
Martin Varini's men looked to be headed for a comfortable victory before some late defensive issues completely changed the complexion of this tie.
The good news is that they have a 100% record at home in this competition, without a goal conceded in either of those two encounters, though they have lost their last two matches played at Arena de Baixada across all competitions.
Counting this season, Athletico have failed to win their opening leg quarter-final fixture at this tournament on three successive occasions, crashing out in the last eight in 2022 and 2023 against Flamengo.
It has been nearly three years since this side won a quarter-final fixture in this competition, beating Santos by a 1-0 score twice in 2021.
Furacao are unbeaten in their last 13 home contests across all competitions versus Vasco, beating them 1-0 at Arena de Baixada earlier this year in Brasileiro Serie A action.
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Down but not out has been the story for this resilient Vasco da Gama side, who came to life in the nick of time in the opening match in this tie.
The club from Rio have avoided defeat in five consecutive matches across all competitions when conceding the opening goal.
Rafael Paiva's men have made it a habit of waking up after the interval, with their last eight goals across all competitions coming in the final 45 minutes.
Vasco enter this contest on an eight-match unbeaten run across all competitions, winning their last three encounters by a single goal.
Not since the 2011 campaign have we seen this side make it beyond the tournament's quarter-finals, when they went on to lift the trophy for the first and only time to date.
Cruzmaltino have won their last two matches with Athletico across all competitions but have not beaten them away from home since claiming a 4-2 triumph at Ligga Arena during the 2007 Copa Sudamericana.
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Team News
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Fernandinho is the only injury concern for El Paranaense ahead of this decisive encounter, with the former Manchester City captain expected to miss a few more weeks with a muscle injury, while Lucas Di Yorio will be suspended following his expulsion in the latter stages of the opening leg.
Christian gave them the lead in that match just beyond the half-hour mark, scoring his second at the Copa do Brasil this year.
Paulinho and Guilherme Estrella are dealing with knee injuries, with neither expected to return to the Vasco da Gama fold by Wednesday, Adson is still recovering from a broken leg and Joao Victor must sit out because of a red card suspension.
Jose Luis Rodriguez drew his side level with a strike in the 80th minute of this first leg, with Hugo Moura scoring the winner in the third minute of stoppage time.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Linck; Rocha, Heleno, Esquivel; Erick, Gabriel; Nikao, Christian, Felipinho, Canobbio; Mastriani
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Jardim; J. Rodriguez, Lyncon, Maicon, Piton; Moura, Carvalho; Coutinho, Payet, E. Rodriguez; Vegetti
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Vasco da Gama (Vasco da Gama advance 3-2 on aggregate)
Despite facing their share of adversity over the past couple of months, Vasco have shown plenty of resilience, which we believe will carry them through this tie.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
