Two teams in dire need of a pick-me-up go head to head when Belenenses play host to Portimonense at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor in round 28 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday.
O Belem, who are currently rooted to the bottom of the Primeira Liga standings, are winless in each of their last five games, while the visitors will be desperate to pick up their first win of the year.
Match preview
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Belenenses were involved in a share of the spoils for the third game on the bounce two Saturdays ago as they were held to a goalless draw by a dogged Santa Clara side.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio de Sao Miguel, Santa Clara were vultures of a toothless display at the attacking end of the pitch as they constantly failed to tuck home their clear-cut chances.
Belenenses have now failed to taste victory in any of their last five games, losing two and claiming three draws in that time, while managing just one win in their last 11 outings.
With 18 points from 27 games, Franclim Carvalho's men remain rooted to the bottom of the Primeira Liga standings, five points adrift of Arouca just outside the relegation zone.
Their poor run so far has been owing to their struggles in attack, where they have scored the fewest number of goals in the division (15), with their struggles at the opposite end of the pitch not any better having conceded 46 goals.
Like the hosts, Portimonense continue to struggle for form as they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Braga when the sides met at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao last time out.
Goals from Francisco Moura and Yan Couto put Os Arcebispos two goals up inside the opening 22 minutes before David Carmo scored an own goal to halve the deficit shortly after the hour mark.
With that result, Portimonense have now failed to win any of their last 13 games across all competitions since the turn of the year, with their last victory coming on December 21, when they saw off Famalicao on penalties in the last 16 of the Taca de Portugal.
This horrid run of results has seen Paulo Sergio's side drop from the top half of the league standings to 11th place after picking up 29 points from 27 games so far.
While Portimonense will be desperate to return to winning ways, they have failed to beat Belenenses on the road in six consecutive games, losing four and claiming two draws since 2012.
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Team News
Belenenses will be without the services of Portuguese youngster Nilton Varela after the 20-year-old defender picked up an injury in February's game against Sporting Lisbon.
He is joined on the O Belem's injury table by South African midfielder Thibang Phete, who has been sidelined after suffering a groin problem.
While Belenenses have been defensively solid in recent weeks, they have scored just once in their last five games, and Carvalho could ring a few changes in attack.
One of which should be Brazilian forward Safira, who will push for a return to the XI, potentially in place of newly-signed 33-year-old Lica.
Portimonense, on the other hand, will have to cope with the absence of Ricardo Matos, who came off with an injury in February's game against Santa Clara.
Other than that, Portimonense have a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Sergio the luxury of an almost full strength squad at his disposal.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Carraca, Akas, Tavares, Calila; Baraye, Sithole, Braima; Sousa; Safira, Camara
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Possignolo, Pedrao, Relvas; Fernandes, Carlinhos; Nakajima, Angulo, Fernandes; Junior
We say: Belenenses 1-0 Portimonense
Portimonense' form heading into Saturday's game is nothing to write home about as they have failed to win any of their 12 games this year. Like the visitors, Belenenses have also struggled for form, picking up just two wins from their most recent 17 games in all competitions.
However, O Belem are unbeaten in each of their last six home games against the visitors, claiming four wins and two draws, and we predict they will keep this run going and come away with all three points, albeit by a narrow margin.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 48.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 25.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.
