Benfica have slipped off the top of the table in recent weeks, losing two of their last three matches, and face a difficult opponent in Pacos de Ferreira on Sunday as they look to climb back to the summit of the Primeira Liga.
Pacos Ferreira are fifth in the league and are on a five-game unbeaten run, which should give them confidence despite the daunting task of taking on a title-chasing Benfica outfit.
Match preview
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Benfica won each of their first five games to sit atop the Primeira Liga, but suffered two defeats in succession and are now third, having surrendered top spot to Sporting CP.
However, they do possess the joint-second best goalscoring record in the division with 19 in eight games - level with Porto and behind Sporting.
Their defensive record, on the other hand, while far from being poor, has not been up to their usual high standards so far this term.
Shipping 10 goals in eight games leaves them behind 10 other sides in terms of goals conceded, and Jorge Jesus will demand improvement from his team in this regard.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, are enjoying a fine season by their standards, sitting just two places and four points behind Sunday's opponents.
Pepa's side started slowly, failing to win any of their first three league fixtures, but have since gone on a strong run and catapulted themselves up the table.
They come into this fixture having won three games in a row, and will certainly give Benfica a strong challenge when they visit Lisbon.
Unlike Benfica, Pacos Ferreira do not have the burden of European football to contend with and will have enjoyed extra rest in the build-up to Sunday's fixture.
Benfica Primeira Liga form: WWWLLW
Benfica form (all competitions): DLWDWW
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: LWDWWW
Pacos de Ferreira form (all competitions): WDWWWW
Team News
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Benfica boss Jesus has three players absent as he prepares to host Pacos Ferreira on Sunday.
Adel Taarabt is unavailable due to Covid-19 and Jean-Clair Todibo is still struggling with a thigh problem.
Additionally, Andre Almeida has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a serious knee injury.
Pacos Ferreira manager Pepa, meanwhile, has just two short-term absentees ahead of this contest.
Jorge Silva and Dor Jan are both out injured, but should return later this month.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Pires, Chiquinho; Silva, Pizzi, Everton; Nunez
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Baixinho, Reabciuk; Eustaquio; Ferreira, Carlos, Costa, Singh; Tanque
We say: Benfica 2-1 Pacos de Ferreira
This should be a close contest and Pacos Ferreira, who are in good form, have every chance of picking up some points, but Benfica are a notch above in terms of quality and should have just enough to edge the game.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 15.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
