Coventry City will be looking to keep their hopes of a playoff spot alive when they travel to Birmingham City in the Championship on Friday afternoon.
The visitors are currently 10th in the table, six points behind sixth-placed Sheffield United, while Birmingham occupy 18th, some 16 points clear of the relegation zone with five games to play.
Match preview
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Birmingham have finished 19th, 19th, 17th, 20th and 18th in their last five Championship campaigns, and it appears that they will end this particular season in a similar position.
Absent from the Premier League since 2010-2011, the Blues have won 11, drawn 12 and lost 18 of their 41 Championship matches this season to collect 45 points, which has left them in 18th spot, 16 points clear of the relegation zone and four behind 17th-placed Cardiff City, who have a game in hand.
Lee Bowyer's side recorded a 1-0 win over West Bromwich Albion at the start of the month but will enter this contest off the back of a 2-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest on April 9.
The Blues have found it difficult to show consistency at home this season, claiming just 26 points from 20 matches in front of their own supporters, and they have picked up just four points from their last four fixtures at St Andrew's, which has been too easy for opposition teams to play at this term.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last five matches against Coventry in all competitions, but four of those fixtures have finished all square, including a goalless draw in the reverse league game back in November.
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Coventry were not expected to challenge for a possible playoff spot in the Championship this season, but they are in the top-six argument heading into the final straight, which is a huge achievement for the club.
Indeed, the Sky Blues are currently 10th in the table, six points behind sixth-placed Sheffield United, meaning that they will have to enjoy a strong end to the campaign to stand a chance of making the playoffs.
Mark Robins's side, who finished 16th in the second tier last term, will enter this match off the back of an excellent 3-1 victory away to the Championship leaders Fulham on April 10.
The win at Craven Cottage proved to be their first success in the league since March 12, and their final five matches of the campaign are against Birmingham, Bournemouth, West Bromwich Albion, Huddersfield Town and Stoke City.
Coventry have actually picked up points in 12 of their 20 away Championship matches this season, but they have not managed to beat Birmingham in the league since a 1-0 Championship success in February 2009.
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Team News
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Birmingham will be missing Matija Sarkic, George Friend, Adan George and Teden Mengi through injury, while goalkeeper Neil Etheridge suffered a concussion against Forest and will not be involved in this match.
Bowyer, speaking during his pre-match press conference, also revealed that on-loan Manchester United attacker Tahith Chong will miss the contest due to a hamstring problem.
However, there will be a return to the team for Lyle Taylor, who was unavailable to take on his parent club Forest last time out, so Taylor Richards is likely to drop down to the bench for the home side.
As for Coventry, Jake Clarke-Salter and Matt Godden have been ruled out for the rest of the season, but Kyle McFadzean could potentially be available for this contest.
Jodi Jones and Liam Kelly are both still out, though, while Jordan Shipley and Josh Eccles will be unavailable for selection through illness and COVID-19 respectively.
Head coach Robins could ultimately decide to stick with the same XI that started the impressive victory over Fulham last time out, with Callum O'Hare again supporting Viktor Gyokeres in the final third.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Trueman; Colin, Roberts, Gordon; Hernandez, Sunjic, Gardner, Bacuna, Pedersen; Hogan, Taylor
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Moore; Hyam, Rose, Bidwell; Dabo, Sheaf, Allen, Hamer, Maatsen; O'Hare; Gyokeres
We say: Birmingham City 1-2 Coventry City
Only a win will do for Coventry if they are to stand any chance of making the playoffs this season, and we are backing the visitors to collect all three points on Friday afternoon, with Gyokeres potentially adding to the 15 strikes that he has managed in the second tier this term.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Coventry City would win this match.
