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Dortmund logo
DFB-Pokal | Semi-Finals
May 1, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
5 - 0
Holstein Kiel

Reyna (16', 23'), Reus (26'), Hazard (32'), Bellingham (41')
FT(HT: 5-0)

Hauptmann (37'), Lorenz (86')

Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Holstein Kiel - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's DFB-Pokal clash between Borussia Dortmund and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Borussia Dortmund take on Holstein Kiel in the semi-final of the DFB-Pokal on Saturday, with the visitors competing at this stage of the competition for the first time since 1941.

The two sides actually met in the quarter-final in 2012, with Dortmund running out 4-0 winners along the way to their third DFB-Pokal triumph.


Match preview

Erling Braut Haaland in action for Borussia Dortmund on April 10, 2021© Reuters

Dortmund have won the German cup once since then, too, so Edin Terzic will be hoping to depart the club in the summer having become the fifth manager to deliver the trophy to the club.

BVB should certainly head into Saturday's semi-final against the second-tier outfit with plenty of confidence after four successive league wins has put them right back into the mix for a Champions League qualification position.

Their 2-0 win at third-placed Wolfsburg at the weekend was a particularly significant victory, with Terzic's side moving one point behind Eintracht Frankfurt and two points behind the Wolves courtesy of Erling Braut Haaland's brace.

What had been shaping up to be a hugely disappointing campaign for Dortmund could turn into a perfectly adequate one should Terzic bow out with a trophy and a top-four position ahead of Marco Rose replacing him as manager next season.

Holstein Kiel coach Ole Werner pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, had been shaping up to gain promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history, but have seen their momentum frustratingly slowed by a recent COVID-19 outbreak at the club.

Indeed, Ole Werner's side have only played four league matches since March 8, leaving them with two or three games in hand on most of the sides around them.

However, their 3-1 win at Vfl Osnabruck on Saturday saw them climb up to fourth in the table, with a 1-1 draw at Nuremberg in midweek taking them one point behind Hamburger SV in the promotion playoff position.

In a sense, then, Werner and his players could probably do without the distraction of a cup semi-final, but it is one they have certainly earned after knocking out Bayern Munich on penalties in the second round.

They will require a similarly heroic performance to defeat Dortmund on Saturday, particularly given their congested schedule.

Borussia Dortmund DFB-Pokal form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Holstein Kiel DFB-Pokal form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Holstein Kiel form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho pictured on February 13, 2021© Reuters

Dortmund will welcome Mats Hummels back to the side after the defender served a one-match suspension against Wolfsburg at the weekend.

Jude Bellingham's dismissal in that match will not rule him out of action against Holstein Kiel, with his suspension only applying to the Bundesliga, but Mahmoud Dahoud is unavailable after being sent off in the previous round's win against his future manager Rose's Borussia Monchengladbach.

With a huge match against RB Leipzig - who Dortmund could face in the final of the DFB-Pokal - in the league next weekend, Terzic may be tempted to rest a few key players.

Jadon Sancho, who only recently returned from injury, and Marco Reus could be two of those, with Thorgan Hazard and Julian Brandt potentially benefitting with a start.

Youssoufa Moukoko, Axel Witsel, Marcel Schmelzer and Dan-Axel Zagadou are all ruled out through injury.

Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, will travel without Ioannis Gelios after the goalkeeper tested positive for coronavirus.

Stefan Thesker is also unavailable due to an Achilles tendon rupture, but otherwise Werner looks to have a full squad to choose from.

Forward Janni Serra will be hoping to score his fourth goal in this season's competition, with the likes of Fin Bartels, Fabian Reese and Joshua Mees all capable of threatening Dortmund between the lines.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Piszczek, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Bellingham, Delaney; Hazard, Brandt, Reyna; Haaland

Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Dehm, Wahl, Lorenz, Van Den Bergh; Lee, Meffert; Bartels, Mees, Reese; Serra


SM words green background

We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Holstein Kiel

We can envisage Holstein Kiel providing Dortmund with a bigger test than expected, particularly if Terzic does elect to rest a few players.

However, Haaland alone is likely to have too much quality for their opponents in the end, with Dortmund highly motivated to win their first trophy since lifting the DFB-Pokal in 2017.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel

Borussia Dortmund
85.4%
Draw
6.3%
Holstein Kiel
8.3%
48
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Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jude Bellingham pictured on January 16, 2021
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