Two teams with contrasting fortunes this season face off on Tuesday evening as fourth-placed Braga entertain fourth-from-bottom Gil Vicente in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.
The hosts will be looking to bounce back from their Taca da Liga final defeat at the hands of league-leaders Sporting Lisbon last time out, while the visitors will be aiming to end their four-game winless run.
Match preview
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Former Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea City manager Carlos Carvalhal is now at the helm at the Estadio Municipal de Braga and is enjoying a relatively successful campaign with his new club.
Os Arcebispos find themselves five points behind Benfica and Porto, who are occupying second and third place, respectively, in the league standings after collecting 27 points from their opening 14 league outings.
Repeating their 2019-20 exploits and finishing inside the top three will be Braga's aim this season, but Portuguese football's traditional powerhouses are threatening to pull away from Carvalhal's men.
They will be viewing this midweek encounter as the perfect opportunity to regain their momentum, given Gil Vicente's lowly league position, and nothing other than the three points will do.
Ricardo Soares's men are just one point and one place above the relegation playoff place after winning just three league games all season.
Scoring goals has been the main issue for Gilistas in the current campaign. Their 10-goal haul means they have the joint-second worst attacking record in the division, something that will have to change if they want to maintain their top-flight status.
A 1-0 loss on home soil to Maritimo last time out means Gil Vicente have only picked up four points from a possible 15, and their recent struggles are threatening to drag them into the drop zone.
Soares will be viewing this midweek clash as a free hit for his side given the disparity between the two teams but, with Braga potentially suffering from a hangover following their cup final defeat, he may fancy his side's chances of nicking a result on Tuesday.
Braga Primeira Liga form: LWWLWL
Braga form (all competitions): LWWLWL
Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form: DLWDLL
Gil Vicente form (all competitions): WWDLWL
Team News
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Braga will once again be without long-term absentees Rui Fonte and Francisco Moura as the pair continue to recover from their cruciate ligament injuries.
That means Carvalhal could name the same XI that were defeated by Sporting on Saturday, although the 55-year-old may want to freshen things up given the result.
Gil Vicente will be without Brazilian centre-forward Miullen as the young striker is sidelined through a knee injury.
The 22-year-old is joined on the treatment table by his compatriot Diogo Silva, who has missed the last 12 games for the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos outfit.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Sequeira, Carmo, Tormena; Galeno, Castro, Elmusrati, Esgaio; Fransergio, Horta, Paulinho
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Pereira, Nogueira, Fernandes, Talocha; Mineiro, Afonso, Goncalves; Baraye, Lino, Lourency
We say: Braga 2-0 Gil Vicente
Braga will be looking to put their League Cup final defeat behind them as quickly as possible and should be able to do just that in midweek. Gil Vicente struggle to score goals and have been in poor form so we think the hosts should run out comfortable winners.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 61.69%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 15.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Braga in this match.
