Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 53.48%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.