Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.