Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 53.56%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 21.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
