Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 46.75%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 26.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.