Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.