Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.48%) and 2-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (12.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.