Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 57.87%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 19.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Vitoria
57.87% ( -0.16)	23.09% ( 0.03)	19.03% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 49.86% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.59% (

0.07)

49.41% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.55% (

0.06)

71.45% (

-0.06)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.2% (

-0.03)

16.8% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.23% (

-0.06)

46.77% (

0.05)

Vitoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.92% (

0.19)

40.07% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.28% (

0.17)

76.72% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 57.86%

Vitoria 19.03%

Draw 23.09%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Vitoria
1-0 @ 12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.94% Total : 57.86%	1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.09%	0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 19.03%