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Bundesliga | Gameweek 5
Sep 24, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Heidenheim

B. Leverkusen
4 - 1
Heidenheim

Okoh Boniface (9', 74' pen.), Hofmann (63'), Adli (82')
Palacios (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Dinkci (58')
Theuerkauf (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Heidenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Hacken
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Heidenheim

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 4-2 Werder Bremen
Sunday, September 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Heidenheim

 Leverkusen have already beaten RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach, as well as holding Bayern to a draw at the Allianz, so another three points will be the order of the day here against newly-promoted opposition. Heidenheim have scored eight in their last three games though, including two away at Dortmund, so Leverkusen can not take them lightly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
50.35% (1.563 1.56) 23% (0.0030000000000001 0) 26.64% (-1.564 -1.56)
Both teams to score 60.01% (-1.376 -1.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.37% (-1.228 -1.23)40.63% (1.23 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.99% (-1.269 -1.27)63.01% (1.271 1.27)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.7% (0.11 0.11)16.3% (-0.109 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.13% (0.19900000000001 0.2)45.86% (-0.198 -0.2)
Heidenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.7% (-1.741 -1.74)28.3% (1.743 1.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.98% (-2.253 -2.25)64.02% (2.254 2.25)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 50.35%
    Heidenheim 26.64%
    Draw 23%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
2-1 @ 9.58% (0.144 0.14)
1-0 @ 8.37% (0.492 0.49)
2-0 @ 7.59% (0.472 0.47)
3-1 @ 5.79% (0.108 0.11)
3-0 @ 4.59% (0.301 0.3)
3-2 @ 3.66% (-0.112 -0.11)
4-1 @ 2.63% (0.058 0.06)
4-0 @ 2.08% (0.144 0.14)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.045 -0.05)
5-1 @ 0.95% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 50.35%
1-1 @ 10.56% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.209 -0.21)
0-0 @ 4.61% (0.255 0.26)
3-3 @ 1.54% (-0.127 -0.13)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23%
1-2 @ 6.67% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-1 @ 5.82% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 3.68% (-0.155 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.81% (-0.255 -0.26)
2-3 @ 2.55% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-3 @ 1.55% (-0.147 -0.15)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 26.64%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Heidenheim

Bayer Leverkusen
88.2%
Draw
7.8%
Heidenheim
3.9%
51
Head to Head
Feb 5, 2019 5.30pm
Round of 16
Heidenheim
2-1
B. Leverkusen
Dovedan (47'), Multhaup (72')
Dorsch (64')
Brandt (44')
Dragovic (77'), Baumgartlinger (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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