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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 15, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Leverkusen logo

Bayern
2 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Kane (7'), Goretzka (86')
Tuchel (25')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Grimaldo (24'), Palacios (90+4' pen.)
Hofmann (34'), Wirtz (47'), Tapsoba (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Bayern Munich 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen

With plenty of confidence from their own fine start, Bayer Leverkusen will hope to catch out the defending champions at the Allianz Arena after the international break, and they should certainly cause the Bavarians problems with their attacking quality. We do, however, see Tuchel's men having just enough to outscore Die Werkself and take all three points from a tough test on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
47.84% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09) 22.85% (-0.163 -0.16) 29.3% (0.25 0.25)
Both teams to score 62.74% (0.76900000000001 0.77)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.03% (0.936 0.94)37.97% (-0.938 -0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.77% (0.991 0.99)60.23% (-0.993 -0.99)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.78% (0.31999999999999 0.32)16.22% (-0.322 -0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.28% (0.581 0.58)45.72% (-0.583 -0.58)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.89% (0.631 0.63)25.11% (-0.634 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.19% (0.866 0.87)59.81% (-0.866 -0.87)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 47.84%
    Bayer Leverkusen 29.3%
    Draw 22.84%
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 9.31% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
1-0 @ 7.41% (-0.254 -0.25)
2-0 @ 6.74% (-0.156 -0.16)
3-1 @ 5.65% (0.035 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.09% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.9% (0.094 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.57% (0.044 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.86% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (0.061 0.06)
5-1 @ 0.93% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 47.84%
1-1 @ 10.23% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-2 @ 6.43% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
0-0 @ 4.07% (-0.185 -0.19)
3-3 @ 1.8% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 22.84%
1-2 @ 7.07% (0.019 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.63% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-2 @ 3.89% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 3.26% (0.067 0.07)
2-3 @ 2.96% (0.093 0.09)
0-3 @ 1.79% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.13% (0.043 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.02% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 29.3%

How you voted: Bayern vs B. Leverkusen

Bayern Munich
68.2%
Draw
18.2%
Bayer Leverkusen
13.5%
148
Head to Head
Mar 19, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 25
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Bayern
Palacios (55' pen., 73' pen.)
Kimmich (22')
Sep 30, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 8
Bayern
4-0
B. Leverkusen
Sane (3'), Musiala (17'), Mane (39'), Muller (84')
Mar 5, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Sule (18')
Coman (72')
Muller (36' og.)
Bakker (32'), Demirbay (54')
Oct 17, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
B. Leverkusen
1-5
Bayern
Schick (55')
Lewandowski (4', 30'), Muller (34'), Gnabry (35', 37')
Apr 20, 2021 7.30pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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