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Cambuur
Eredivisie | Gameweek 24
Mar 11, 2022 at 7pm UK
Cambuur Stadion
Ajax

Cambuur
2 - 3
Ajax

Kallon (48'), Joosten (79')
Boere (19'), Maulun (59')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Tadic (3'), Haller (40'), Gravenberch (90+1')
Haller (71')

Preview: Cambuur vs. Ajax - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between Cambuur and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Ajax sit just two points clear of PSV Eindhoven in an intriguing Eredivisie title race, but the defending champions will have the chance to put pressure on their title rivals when they face Cambuur on Friday evening.

The hosts, meanwhile, have won just once in their previous nine league matches, but they do enter the contest in eighth place.


Match preview

Ajax coach Erik ten Hag during training on February 22, 2022© Reuters

Although they sit just outside of the Europa Conference League playoffs places, Cambuur's hopes of finishing in the top seven are hanging by a thread.

With nine games to play, Friday's hosts are seven points adrift of the Europa Conference League playoffs after losing four of their last five matches, but they can still be pleased with their efforts in their first season back in the top flight since the 2015-16 campaign.

They did have the chance to claim back-to-back victories last weekend after winning 2-1 against Fortuna Sittard, but they fell just short in their away encounter with Twente.

Robin Propper's second-half strike condemned Cambuur to their third consecutive away defeat, and their task does not get any easier with a home contest against Ajax on Friday.

Despite their top-half position in the league table, Cambuur have struggled defensively this season, and they enter Friday's encounter with the worst home defensive record in the league after conceding 26 goals at the Cambuurstadion this term.

Ajax Amsterdam's Dusan Tadic celebrates scoring their first goal with Steven Berghuis on February 23, 2022© Reuters

Ajax are embroiled in a fierce title battle with PSV Eindhoven, with the race for the Eredivisie crown set to go down to the wire.

The defending champions have shown signs that the pressure may be getting to them in recent weeks after they suffered a surprise 2-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles before scraping past RKC Waalwijk in their most recent outing.

Erik ten Haag's side looked set to make light work of RKC Waalwijk after a first-half brace from Sebastien Haller had given Ajax a two-goal lead at the break, but two quick goals helped the relegation strugglers restore parity within 17 minutes of the restart.

With Ajax heading towards two dropped points, Dusan Tadic struck from the spot after Antony had been brought down in the area to ensure that Ten Haag's men would remain at the Eredivisie summit.

Despite losing in their last away encounter, Ajax have conceded just four league goals on their travels, which has helped them claim nine victories from their 12 away Eredivisie matches this season.

Cambuur Eredivisie form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Ajax Eredivisie form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Ajax form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Ajax's Noussair Mazraoui pictured in December 2021© Reuters

Sonny Stevens, Mees Hoedemakers, Maxim Gullit and Roberts Uldrikis are all expected to be absent for the hosts due to injury issues.

Marco Tol is set to replace Calvin Mac-Intosch, who will serve a one-match suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Henk de Jong may bring Patrick Joosten into the starting lineup, which could result in David Sambissa dropping to the bench.

As for Ajax, they will be without the services of Brian Brobbey, Noussair Mazraoui and Remko Pasveer, who are all ruled out through injury.

Lisandro Martinez is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, which could result in a defensive reshuffle, with Daley Blind expected to move across to partner Perr Schuurs in the centre of defence, while Nicolas Tagliafico will feature at left-back.

Haller added to his tally last weekend to cement his place as the Eredivisie top scorer and with the Ivory Coast international just two short of 20 league goals for the season, he will be determined to find the net once again on Friday.

Cambuur possible starting lineup:
Stevens; Ter Heide, Tol, Schouten, Bangura; Jacobs, Paulissen, Maulun; Joosten, Kallon, Boere

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Onana; Rensch, Schuurs, Blind, Tagliafico; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Berghuis, Tadic; Haller


SM words green background

We say: Cambuur 0-3 Ajax

Cambuur will still be wounded following the 9-0 thrashing that Ajax dished out in the reverse fixture, and though we do not expect the defending champions to accumulate such a total on Friday, we think that Ten Haag's side will cruise to three points as they look to put the pressure on PSV.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 73.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Cambuur had a probability of 11.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-3 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Cambuur win it was 2-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cambuur vs Ajax

Cambuur
20.6%
Draw
5.9%
Ajax
73.5%
68
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