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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 50.67%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 24.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Leicester City |
24.87% ( -0.75) | 24.46% ( -0.2) | 50.67% ( 0.95) |
Both teams to score 53.38% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.39% ( 0.23) | 48.6% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.28% ( 0.21) | 70.72% ( -0.21) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.05% ( -0.51) | 33.95% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.38% ( -0.55) | 70.62% ( 0.55) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.81% ( 0.47) | 19.19% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.13% ( 0.78) | 50.87% ( -0.78) |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Leicester City |
1-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.87% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.45% | 0-1 @ 10.75% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 5.28% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 58 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 56 |
3 | Sunderland | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 54 |
4 | Burnley | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 44 |
6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 42 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 41 |
9 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 38 |
10 | Bristol City | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 37 |
11 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 35 |
14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 34 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Millwall | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 31 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 28 |
20 | Derby CountyDerby | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 27 |
21 | Hull City | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 26 |
22 | Portsmouth | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 21 |
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