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Chelsea logo
Premier League | Gameweek 38
Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK
Stamford Bridge
Wolves logo

Chelsea
2 - 0
Wolves

Mount (45+1'), Giroud (45+4')
Giroud (45+3'), Azpilicueta (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Jota (22'), Neto (45'), Dendoncker (83')

Preview: Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Chelsea and Wolverhampton Wanderers, including team news and predicted lineups.

Chelsea and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at Stamford Bridge on the final day of the Premier League season with their European fate in their own hands.

The Blues are in possession of the final Champions League qualifying spot and Wolves are in sixth, which would be enough to seal another season of Europa League football.


Match preview

Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud celebrates scoring against Norwich City on July 14, 2020© Reuters

Has the 2019-20 campaign, Frank Lampard's first as Chelsea head coach, been a successful one for the Blues? That is a question that cannot be answered for another week or so.

Operating under transfer constraints and with star man Eden Hazard no longer at the club, a top-four finish for Chelsea and FA Cup silverware would undoubtedly make this an impressive maiden campaign in the Stamford Bridge dugout for club legend Lampard.

Chelsea can tick off the first of those aims on Sunday with victory against Wolves, which would take them to 66 points for the season - six fewer than they managed in Maurizio Sarri's only campaign at the helm.

Only then can focus turn to next weekend's FA Cup showdown against Arsenal, with the Blues booking their place in the final with a 3-1 victory over Manchester United last week.

The Blues could actually lose on Sunday and still finish in the top four, meanwhile, with the two sides either side of them facing off at the King Power Stadium at the same time.

Manchester United are above Chelsea on goal difference alone, while Leicester City are a point worse off but have a far superior goal difference.

Daniel Podence celebrates scoring for Wolves on July 20, 2020© Reuters

Should Chelsea draw against Wolves then they will be hoping for a Man Utd victory in the East Midlands to stop Leicester from overtaking them in fourth place.

Lampard will be targeting a victory on home soil to ensure that other factors do not come into play, but his side have lost two of their last three league games.

That is as many defeats as they had suffered in their previous 11 outings, with Chelsea's poor defensive setup being exposed by Sheffield United and Liverpool in 3-0 and 5-3 losses.

Wolves will be looking to become the latest side to exploit Chelsea's backline and they head into the game with a bit of momentum on their side after recovering from a recent blip.

Back-to-back losses to Arsenal and Sheff Utd effectively killed off Wanderers' top-four aspirations, but they have since seen off Everton and Crystal Palace, either side of drawing against in-form Burnley.

Like opponents Chelsea, Wolves will have an eye on other results this weekend in their battle to finish above Tottenham Hotspur - one point worse off in seventh - and secure Europa League football.

That will provide Nuno Espirito Santo's men with a safety net of sorts as they could yet be competing in the Champions League next season should they go all the way in this term's Europa League.

Wolves are locked at 1-1 with Olympiacos ahead of their rearranged last-16 second leg early next month and will be eager to keep their momentum going into that match.

Chelsea's Premier League form: LWWLWL
Chelsea's form (all competitions): WWLWWL

Wolves' Premier League form: WLLWDW


Team News

Christian Pulisic pictured scoring for Chelsea on June 25, 2020© Reuters

N'Golo Kante has missed Chelsea's last five matches and remains a major doubt for the final league game of the season, while Fikayo Tomori and Billy Gilmour are definitely out.

Lampard is expected to revert to a four-man backline against Wolves, which will likely mean Cesar Azpilicueta shifting over to the left and Reece James operating at right-back.

Jorginho has returned to the side over the last week and should retain his place for this one, while up top Christian Pulisic seems certain to start after his superb cameo display from the bench at Anfield.

Another pushing for a recall is Tammy Abraham, who has scored in all three of his league appearances against Wolves, netting six goals in total, including a hat-trick in the Blues' 5-2 win in the reverse fixture.

As for Wolves, Nuno has no injury or suspension issues ahead of this trip to West London.

Wanderers cannot afford to look ahead to their Europa League tie with Olympiacos just yet, with Nuno needing to name his strongest possible XI on Sunday.

Daniel Podence has impressed since last month's restart and is expected to start again alongside key man Raul Jimenez, making it a shootout between Adama Traore and Diogo Jota for the other spot in attack.

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Kepa; James, Rudiger, Zouma, Azpilicueta; Kovacic, Jorginho, Mount; Willian, Giroud, Pulisic

Wolves possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Boly, Coady, Saiss; Doherty, Neves, Moutinho, Jonny; Podence, Jimenez, Jota


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Chelsea 2-1 Wolves

Both teams require a victory on Sunday if they are to prevent other results from coming into the equation. Chelsea are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League home games against Wolves, last losing against them in the top flight at Stamford Bridge in March 1979, and we can see them edging this final-day clash in West London.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 48.38%. A win for Wolverhampton Wanderers had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Wolverhampton Wanderers win was 0-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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