MX23RW : Wednesday, December 18 14:17:03| >> :60:949:949:
Panama national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Nov 21, 2023 at 2am UK
Estadio Rommel Fernandez Gutierrez
Costa Rica national football team

Panama
3 - 1
Costa Rica

Fajardo (20'), Luis Rodriguez (23'), Joel Barcenas (43' pen.)
Fajardo (2'), Escobar (54')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Calvo (51')
Calvo (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Panama and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Panama

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Costa Rica 0-3 Panama
Friday, November 17 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Costa Rica

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Costa Rica 0-3 Panama
Friday, November 17 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

We said: Panama 2-0 Costa Rica (Panama advances on aggregate)

 In the opening leg, Costa Rica looked like a side still getting familiar with one another, which is what they are currently dealing with. Meanwhile, the Panamanians were cohesive and sharp on the ball, and their fluid passing and strong midfielders are as good as anyone remaining at this tournament, so we are sceptical they will slip up on Monday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 67.96%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 12.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.

Result
PanamaDrawCosta Rica
67.96% (0.042999999999992 0.04) 19.46% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 12.59% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 46.68% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.05% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)45.95% (0.067 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.74% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)68.26% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Panama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.5% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)12.5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.51% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)38.49% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Costa Rica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.35% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)46.65% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.78% (-0.074000000000002 -0.07)82.22% (0.078999999999994 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Panama 67.95%
    Costa Rica 12.59%
    Draw 19.46%
PanamaDrawCosta Rica
2-0 @ 12.6% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 12.12% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.61% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.74% (0.017000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.66% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.54% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.46% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.54% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.89% (0.002 0)
5-1 @ 1.44% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 67.95%
1-1 @ 9.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 5.83% (0.017 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.67% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 19.46%
0-1 @ 4.45%
1-2 @ 3.53% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.7% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 0.93% (-0.0059999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 12.59%

How you voted: Panama vs Costa Rica

Panama
82.4%
Draw
5.9%
Costa Rica
11.8%
17
Head to Head
Nov 17, 2023 3am
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Costa Rica
0-3
Panama

Campbell (10'), Arboine (43'), Aguilera (59'), Pablo Vargas (83'), Bran (86')
Murillo (4'), Fajardo (29'), Waterman Ruiz (60')
Godoy (59')
> Preview
Jun 27, 2023 2am
Group Stage
Costa Rica
1-2
Panama
Suarez (90+1')
Alcocer (15'), Azofeifa (84')
Fajardo (23'), Joel Barcenas (68')
Godoy (44')
> Preview
Mar 29, 2023 3am
League A
Costa Rica
0-1
Panama
Jun 3, 2022
12.30am
League A
Panama  
P
vs.
C
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Panama
Ruiz (65')
> Preview
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