Wilstermann

3 - 1

Penarol

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jorge Wilstermann win with a probability of 44.9%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jorge Wilstermann win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jorge Wilstermann would win this match.