Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.66%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.