Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 4, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo
Nublense0 - 1LDU Quito
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Nublense 1-1 LDU Quito
While the visitors come into the match with a better record in the first half of the season, they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last four away matches and may find it difficult to keep a clean sheet in this one as well. The hosts have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, unbeaten in their last five, and cannot be counted out of the contest just yet. Our feeling is that these sides will cancel each other out by the final whistle. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Nublense had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Nublense win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for LDU Quito in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nublense | Draw | LDU Quito |
29.72% ( 0.01) | 26.03% ( 0) | 44.25% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.2% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
