Penarol
1 - 2
Athletico PR

(Athletico Paranaense win 4-1 on aggregate)

Alvarez (22')
Trindade (40'), Busquets (74'), Alvarez (84'), Rodriguez (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Terans (2'), Rocha (75')
Erick (13'), Richard (33'), Nicolas (77'), Nikao (83'), Cittadini (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Penarol and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.01%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.63%) and 3-1 (6.58%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
54.01%	20.85%	25.13%

Both teams to score 66.37%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.37%

31.62%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.87%

53.12%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.02%

11.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.6%

37.39%

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.4%

24.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.91%

59.08%

Score Analysis

Penarol 54.01%

Athletico Paranaense 25.13%

Draw 20.85%

Penarol	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
2-1 @ 9.3% 2-0 @ 6.63% 3-1 @ 6.58% 1-0 @ 6.25% 3-0 @ 4.69% 3-2 @ 4.62% 4-1 @ 3.49% 4-0 @ 2.49% 4-2 @ 2.45% 5-1 @ 1.48% 4-3 @ 1.15% 5-0 @ 1.06% 5-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.79% Total : 54.01%	1-1 @ 8.77% 2-2 @ 6.53% 0-0 @ 2.95% 3-3 @ 2.16% Other @ 0.45% Total : 20.85%	1-2 @ 6.15% 0-1 @ 4.13% 2-3 @ 3.05% 0-2 @ 2.9% 1-3 @ 2.88% 0-3 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.07% 1-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.59% Total : 25.13%