Norwich City will aim to move a step closer to the Premier League when they travel to Derby County on Saturday.
The Canaries are eight points clear at the top of the Championship table and 17 points ahead of third-placed Brentford, while the Rams are 18th and not yet completely safe from relegation.
Match preview
© Reuters
Norwich have lit up the second tier with their sumptuous displays throughout this season, and they produced a jaw-dropping performance on Tuesday night in a 7-0 win over Huddersfield Town – their biggest league victory in 70 years.
Daniel Farke's side were five goals up by half time as the likes of Teemu Pukki and Emiliano Buendia turned on the style; the Finnish striker netted a hat-trick to take his tally to the season to 25, while Buendia registered three assists in 22 first-half minutes.
Norwich now need just five more points to confirm promotion and could even clinch a place in the top flight this weekend if results go in their favour. Either way, it seems a fairly straightforward ask for a team who have won 10 of their last 12 matches and have lost just once in the league in 2021.
After Saturday, four of the Canaries' final five fixtures come against teams currently in the top seven, but these games will likely act as a trophy procession as they look to break the 100-point barrier.
However, Farke will prepare for the trip to Pride Park with caution as Derby are one of just five teams to beat Norwich in the Championship this season; Wayne Rooney's superb 87th-minute free-kick proved decisive in a 1-0 victory for the Rams in October.
© Reuters
In fact, the Canaries have only won one of the last nine meetings between the two sides and have not claimed three points in Derbyshire since 2010.
Rooney made the switch to manager a month after that result earlier in the season and enjoyed an assured start to life in the dugout. However, he is now in the midst of a tricky period, with the Rams winning just one of their last nine games.
Derby were beaten 3-1 by Reading on Easter Monday, leaving them eight points above the relegation zone. However, they have played more games than all of the teams below them apart from Birmingham City and Wycombe Wanderers.
Those two clubs are the only sides to score fewer goals in the Championship this season than Derby, with Colin Kazim-Richards (seven) the only player in the squad to net more than three times; Tom Lawrence's thunderbolt against Reading was his first goal of the season.
Rooney's side will take confidence from the fact that they have lost just one of their last eight home games, though, and did win their last match at Pride Park against Luton Town.
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
"We are down to our bare bones" is how Wayne Rooney has described Derby's current injury situation, with several key players such as Matt Clarke, Martyn Waghorn and Lee Gregory all sidelined.
There were two more casualties in Monday's defeat to Reading, with Nathan Byrne forced off with concussion and Jack Stretton suffering a calf injury; the latter has now been ruled out for the season.
Byrne's absence will force Rooney into a defensive reshuffle, with Andre Wisdom switching to right-back, Craig Forsyth moving into the centre and Lee Buchanan coming in at left-back.
After such an emphatic result on Tuesday night, Norwich boss Farke is expected to name an unchanged lineup for the trip to Pride Park.
That will mean a third successive start for 18-year-old centre-back Andrew Omobamidele, who has looked assured since being thrown into the team.
Adam Idah and Lukas Rupp are edging closer to returning from injury but are unlikely to be unavailable until next weekend's game against Bournemouth.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Wisdom, Mengi, Forsyth, Buchanan; Shinnie, Bird; Sibley, Knight, Lawrence; Kazim-Richards
Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Omobamidele, Hanley, Giannoulis; Skipp, McLean; Buendia, Dowell, Cantwell; Pukki
We say: Derby County 0-3 Norwich City
After two successive draws, Norwich's thrashing of Huddersfield on Tuesday served as a reminder of their sublime quality, and we expect them to be unstoppable again on Saturday. Derby's injury problems make this game even harder, and Rooney may simply be prepared to write this one off in their fight for survival.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.04%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Norwich City in this match.
