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EFL Cup
Forest Green Rovers
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 24, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The New Lawn
Brighton logo

Forest Green
0 - 3
Brighton


Casey (64'), Stevenson (66'), O'Keeffe (77')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Undav (38'), Alzate (45+1'), Ferguson (90+4')
Paul van Hecke (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup clash between Forest Green Rovers and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Forest Green Rovers

Last Six:
Last Game: Forest Green 0-3 Plymouth
Saturday, August 20 at 3pm in League One

Brighton & Hove Albion

Last Six:
Last Game: West Ham 0-2 Brighton
Sunday, August 21 at 2pm in Premier League

We said: Forest Green Rovers 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

 Despite being likely to change almost their entire XI, we expect Brighton to have too much quality for their opponents. With both sides utilising 3-5-2 formations, it is unlikely to be a goal-fest, especially with the Seagulls potentially taking their foot off the gas if they can get the job done early. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 43.53%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Forest Green RoversDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
31.36% (0.422 0.42) 25.11% (0.166 0.17) 43.53% (-0.584 -0.58)
Both teams to score 56% (-0.36 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.65% (-0.558 -0.56)47.35% (0.562 0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.43% (-0.52 -0.52)69.57% (0.523 0.52)
Forest Green Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.56% (0.0010000000000048 0)28.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.8%64.2% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.25% (-0.501 -0.5)21.75% (0.505 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.07% (-0.773 -0.77)54.93% (0.777 0.78)
Score Analysis
    Forest Green Rovers 31.37%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 43.53%
    Draw 25.11%
Forest Green RoversDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 7.78% (0.18 0.18)
2-1 @ 7.46% (0.061 0.06)
2-0 @ 4.89% (0.113 0.11)
3-1 @ 3.13% (0.025 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.39% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.05% (0.048 0.05)
4-1 @ 0.98% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 31.37%
1-1 @ 11.86% (0.1 0.1)
0-0 @ 6.19% (0.144 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.69% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.11%
0-1 @ 9.44% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
1-2 @ 9.05% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-2 @ 7.2% (-0.05 -0.05)
1-3 @ 4.6% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-3 @ 3.66% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.89% (-0.065 -0.07)
1-4 @ 1.76% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-4 @ 1.4% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.1% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 43.53%

How you voted: Forest Green vs Brighton

Forest Green Rovers
12.6%
Draw
13.8%
Brighton & Hove Albion
73.6%
87
rhs 2.0
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3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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