Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 10.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 3-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.61%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
