Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.