Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aktobe win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Torpedo Kutaisi had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aktobe win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Torpedo Kutaisi win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aktobe would win this match.