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Europa League
AEK Athens
Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 5, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis
Ajax

AEK Athens
1 - 1
Ajax

Vida (74')
Vida (40'), Pineda (51'), Araujo (89'), Amrabat (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bergwijn (30' pen.)
Brobbey (56'), Sutalo (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between AEK Athens and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AEK Athens

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: OFI Crete 2-0 AEK Athens
Monday, October 2 at 6pm in Greek Superleague

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Ajax
Saturday, September 30 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: AEK Athens 2-2 Ajax

 AEK Athens will fancy their chances of claiming another scalp when they face an out-of-sorts Ajax side who have failed to win each of their last five games in all competitions, excluding the abandoned clash with RKC Waalwijk last weekend. Considering the threat that both teams will likely pose in attack, we can see an entertaining score draw played out in Greece. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.32%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AEK AthensDrawAjax
32.28% (-2.571 -2.57) 22.48% (-0.18 -0.18) 45.25% (2.75 2.75)
Both teams to score 65.93% (-0.286 -0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.48% (0.01100000000001 0.01)34.52% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.55% (0.012 0.01)56.45% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
AEK Athens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.35% (-1.341 -1.34)21.65% (1.341 1.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.22% (-2.093 -2.09)54.78% (2.093 2.09)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.15% (1.057 1.06)15.85% (-1.057 -1.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.95% (1.91 1.91)45.05% (-1.91 -1.91)
Score Analysis
    AEK Athens 32.28%
    Ajax 45.25%
    Draw 22.48%
AEK AthensDrawAjax
2-1 @ 7.4% (-0.354 -0.35)
1-0 @ 5.25% (-0.223 -0.22)
2-0 @ 4.02% (-0.345 -0.35)
3-1 @ 3.77% (-0.346 -0.35)
3-2 @ 3.48% (-0.185 -0.19)
3-0 @ 2.05% (-0.269 -0.27)
4-1 @ 1.44% (-0.199 -0.2)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.13 -0.13)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 32.28%
1-1 @ 9.67% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-2 @ 6.82% (-0.076 -0.08)
0-0 @ 3.43% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 2.13% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 22.48%
1-2 @ 8.91% (0.261 0.26)
0-1 @ 6.32% (0.218 0.22)
0-2 @ 5.82% (0.398 0.4)
1-3 @ 5.47% (0.347 0.35)
2-3 @ 4.18% (0.101 0.1)
0-3 @ 3.58% (0.361 0.36)
1-4 @ 2.52% (0.242 0.24)
2-4 @ 1.93% (0.113 0.11)
0-4 @ 1.65% (0.218 0.22)
3-4 @ 0.98% (0.019 0.02)
1-5 @ 0.93% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 45.25%

How you voted: AEK Athens vs Ajax

AEK Athens
32.9%
Draw
27.4%
Ajax
39.7%
146
Head to Head
Nov 27, 2018 5.55pm
Group Stage
AEK Athens
0-2
Ajax

Oikonomou (29'), Chygrynskiy (51'), Livaja (53'), Giakoumakis (90')
Livaja (67')
Tadic (68' pen., 72')
Schone (19'), Mazraoui (60')
Sep 19, 2018 5.55pm
Group Stage
Ajax
3-0
AEK Athens
Tagliafico (46', 90'), Van de Beek (77')
de Jong (74'), Ziyech (75'), Tagliafico (88')

Alef (72'), Mantalos (74')
rhs 2.0
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