Two sides separated by only one point in the Primeira Liga table face off this Saturday when Famalicao host Maritimo.
Both teams are in growing need of a victory after recent winless runs, but it is the visitors Maritimo who go into the game with the slight upper hand over their hosts.
Match preview
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A quick glance at the Primeira Liga table is enough to highlight Famalicao's biggest issue so far this season - they are still conceding far too many goals.
Only three teams ended the 2019-20 campaign with a worse defensive record than Joao Pedro Sousa's side despite their impressive sixth-placed finish in their first season since being promoted to the top tier, and that remains an issue in 2020-21.
Indeed, Famalicao go into matchday seven having conceded a league-high 13 goals in their opening six games and without a clean sheet in their last nine outings stretching back to last season.
Shipping five at home to Benfica in their opening game of the season set the tone somewhat, although there was some measure of improvement last weekend when they limited high-flying Sporting Braga to only one goal, despite playing the final 25 minutes with 10 men after Riccieli's red card.
That was Famalicao's first defeat since the opening day, but they have also only won once this season and will be desperate to get another victory on the board in order to quell any talk of the dreaded 'second-season syndrome'.
Maritimo's form has also tailed off after back-to-back wins over Tondela and, most notably, away to Porto.
Saturday's visitors have suffered something of a hangover from that early high point in Lito Vidigal's fledgling Maritimo career, losing to Portimonense and Moreirense before being held to a goalless draw by Nacional last time out.
Only the bottom two have now lost more matches than Maritimo in the early stages of the campaign, and two of those defeats have come away from home, where they have generally struggled despite that famous win at Porto last month.
Famalicao Primeira Liga form: LWDDDL
Maritimo Primeira Liga form: LWWLLD
Team News
Famalicao
Out: Riccieli (suspended)
Maritimo
Doubtful: Charles Marcelo (muscle)
We say: Famalicao 1-1 Maritimo
With not much to separate the two sides and neither in great form, it is hard to pick out a winner. Maritimo are very much at home in their current position of 11th - where they have finished in each of the last two seasons - while it is difficult to know what to expect from Famalicao after such an impressive 2019-20. We are going for a score draw.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
