The two bottom sides from Group F meet as the Faroe Islands take on Moldova in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers on Tuesday evening.
Both teams have just one point to show for their efforts so far this qualification campaign, but will see this game as an opportunity for a first win.
Match preview
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The Faroe Islands will come into this game with mixed emotions after their most recent match.
On paper, a 1-0 defeat to Euro 2020's fairytale team Denmark is a very good result for a side ranked 114th in the world, but they will be disappointed to have come so close to an unlikely draw, eventually conceding to a Jonas Wind header in the 85th minute.
Admittedly, Denmark boss Kasper Hjulmand made nine changes from the team that beat Scotland 2-0 last week, giving some younger players a start in a game the Danes were expected to win comfortably, but the Faroes put on a tremendous defensive display nonetheless.
Between that performance and having recently claimed their biggest ever international victory in a friendly against Liechtenstein - winning 5-1 in June - Hakan Ericson has plenty of material for a motivational team talk ahead of this fixture.
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Moldova head coach Roberto Bordin may find a motivational team talk harder to put together.
The world's 175th-best national team have, unsurprisingly, never qualified for a major international tournament in their 27-year history and have won just five of their 62 World Cup qualifiers.
They have also won just one of their last 23 games in all competitions, losing 19 of them.
That win did come recently, though, with a 1-0 win at home to Azerbaijan in a friendly at the start of June, the all-important eighth-minute goal coming from 22-year-old forward Vitalie Damascan.
The Selectionata's single point in this qualification campaign was earned in a 1-1 draw with their upcoming opponents back in March, so they will be aware that this fixture presents them with their best chance of ending a run of four defeats in the qualifiers, stretching back to an 8-0 thrashing by Denmark in the game following their draw with the Faroes.
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Team News
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Ericson will likely stick with the 4-5-1 formation that saw his side claim the win against Liechtenstein and nearly hold out against Denmark.
Dundalk centre-back Sonni Nattestad replaced the injured Rogvi Baldvinsson in the backline for the latter and, considering their strong performance, will surely retain his spot alongside Odmar Faero.
Klaemint Olsen, who is just three goals away from becoming the nation's all-time leading scorer, is set to start as the lone striker.
Moldovan forward Ion Nicolaescu will be available, having served the final game of his three-match suspension following a red card against Israel.
Mihail Ghecev, who is yet to score across all competitions for club and country this season, was subbed off at half time in the most recent loss to Scotland and may lose his spot in the starting XI to Cristian Dros.
Faroe Islands possible starting lineup:
Gestsson; Sorensen, Faero, Nattestad, Davidsen; S. Vatnhamar, Hansson, Andreasen, Hendriksson, M. Olsen; K. Olsen
Moldova possible starting lineup:
Avram; Jardan, Armas, Posmac, Reabciuk; Rata, Ionita; Platica, Ginsari, Spataru; Dros
We say: Faroe Islands 1-0 Moldova
Whilst the two sides technically have identical recent records heading into the match, they have come about in quite different circumstances and we are backing the Faroes to build on their impressive performances and secure a narrow win on home soil.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Faroe Islands win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Faroe Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Moldova win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Faroe Islands in this match.
