Following a rollercoaster week for Flamengo, the Rio giants return to Campeonato Brasileiro action on Sunday, as they host Sport Recife.
Losing heavily at home last weekend did not deter 'Fla' from posting a big win in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals, while their visitors are buoyed by a rare four-match unbeaten run.
Match preview
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Having suffered a major shock when beaten heavily at home by Internacional last Sunday, Flamengo travelled to Asuncion to tackle their last-eight opponents in the Copa Libertadores, Olimpia - incidentally, the eliminators of Inter in the previous round.
A storming resurgence during the past month - following their sluggish start to defending the Serie A title - had seen Renato Gaucho's men put together an impressive run of eight successive wins across all competitions; a spell in which they racked up 27 goals.
However, that all ended in spectacular fashion when they were thumped 4-0 at the Maracana by struggling Inter, who were languishing just outside the drop zone before the game.
Two down at the interval, things went from bad to worse for Flamengo, as star striker Gabriel Barbosa was dismissed, and they conceded twice more to slip to fifth in the standings - though still with a couple of games in hand on the teams above them.
Fortunately for the Rubo-Negro, there was little time to dwell on their defeat, as they headed to Paraguay, where they made light work of Olimpia - with Barbosa bagging a brace in their 4-1 first-leg win.
In addition to their pursuit of continental supremacy, Fla are seeking a third successive league crown and to remain in the mix at the top of the table, Gaucho will be keen to extend his record of winning all but one of his games in charge. Since succeeding Rogerio Ceni in the dugout, the former Gremio boss has demonstrated a golden touch, but last week's blip will serve as a warning for his side not to rest on their laurels.
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Sport Recife managed to keep their positive momentum going last time out, as they took a point from a close-fought clash with high-fliers Bragantino at Estadio Ilha do Retiro.
In all, Leao have now picked up points in each of their last four league fixtures, helping them inch away from the bottom four amid a tightly packed bottom half of the Serie A table.
That represents the longest unbeaten streak Umberto Louzer's side have put together all season, offering hope that they can stay up more comfortably than last term, when they survived the drop by a single point in their first year back in the top flight.
Bolstering that belief, Sport have not conceded in any of their last four outings and boast the joint-best defensive record in the division, despite their lowly overall ranking.
However, they now come face-to-face with Flamengo's turbo-charged forward line, which simply seems to score at their will: even accounting for Barbosa's enforced absence this weekend, Bruno Henrique and company have scored three or more times in six of their last seven games.
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Team News
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Flamengo are expected to be without Robert Piris Da Motta (ankle), Rodrigo Caio (muscular), Rene (thigh) and long-term absentee Cesar due to injury this week, but suspension will rob them of perhaps their greatest attacking talent.
Gabriel 'Gabigol' Barbosa will serve a suspension after his red card against Internacional, so Michael could join Bruno Henrique, Everton Ribeiro and Giorgian de Arrascaeta in a still-fearsome front four.
On-loan defender Bruno Viana, meanwhile, has tested positive for COVID-19, so will be required to self-isolate.
Travelling to Rio on the back of nearly 400 minutes without conceding a goal, Sport goalkeeper Mailson has been proving himself a clean sheet master of late, and he will start behind a well-structured four-man defence in a probable 4-5-1 formation.
Sander (foot), Betinho (knee) and former Sao Paulo striker Neilton (ankle) are all set to be missing for the visitors, though.
While definitely defensively sound, they have been struggling for goals themselves, and will name either Mikael or Andre as their lone striker - with the pair being rotated in recent weeks to little effect.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, G. Henrique, Pereira, Luis; Gomes, Maia; Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta, B. Henrique; Michael
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Chico, Sabino, Thyere, Hayner; Ze Welison, Marcao; Gustavo, Lopes, Everaldo; Andre
We say: Flamengo 2-0 Sport Recife
Their calamitous collapse versus Inter aside, Flamengo have been flying high of late, with goals almost guaranteed for the back-to-back Brasileiro champions.
They can pick up another win in their pursuit of a third straight title, but Gabigol's absence and Sport's miserly defence could restrict the Rubo-Negro to a mere two-goal haul.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 68.74%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 12.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.97%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Flamengo in this match.
