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Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 13, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Fluminense

Cerro Porteno
0 - 2
Fluminense


Duarte (27')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Nene (49'), Egidio (61')

Preview: Cerro Porteno vs. Fluminense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Cerro Porteno and Fluminense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fluminense's Copa Libertadores campaign resumes on Tuesday with a trip to Cerro Porteno for the first leg of their last-16 tie.

The Brazilian side finished top of Group D to advance as one of the top-seeded teams, while Cerro Porteno finished second in Group H.


Match preview

Fluminense manager Roger Machado on June 30, 2021© Reuters

Fluminense have made a relatively mixed start to their Brasileiro campaign, having won four, drawn five and lost two of their opening 11 matches.

Roger Machado's men did beat Sport Recife on Saturday to climb into seventh in the division, however, while at the same time building some momentum ahead of this continental clash.

Fluminense were equally inconsistent in the Libertadores group stage, but victories in half of their six matches proved enough to see them finish above River Plate in top spot.

They will now take on Paraguayan side Cerro Porteno over two legs, with the winner to face either Velez Sarsfield or Ecuadorian outfit Barcelona in the quarter-finals.

Cerro have not played a competitive game since losing 2-0 to Club Guarani at the end of May - their third defeat in four matches in all competitions.

That is due to the Paraguay Premier League reaching its midway point, with El Ciclon finishing fourth. The 'Torneo Clausura' campaign will begin on July 16.

Cerro Porteno coach Francisco Arce pictured on May 4, 2021© Reuters

Head coach Francisco Arce's focus will not be on the league clash with Sportivo Luqueno, though, but rather this double-header with high-profile opposition Fluminense either side.

Cerro lost home and away to another Brazilian opponent in Atletico Mineiro in the group stage, yet a couple of wins in their final three games helped them claim second place.

Arce's side have never previously won a continental competition, though they did reach the Libertadores semi-finals in 1973, 1978, 1993, 1998, 1999 and 2011.

Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Cerro Porteno form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Fluminense Copa Libertadores form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W

Fluminense form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Fluminense's Gabriel Teixeira celebrates scoring their first goal with Nene on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Fluminense have been in regular action over the last couple of months, but Machado will still likely pick his strongest-possible side for this first leg.

Centre-back Nino will play no part, however, as he is away on Olympics duty with Brazil, while Hudson is carrying an injury and Fred is another big doubt.

Juan Cazares started just one of Fluminense's Libertadores group matches, but he may be tasked with leading the line on Tuesday, as he did against Sport Recife at the weekend.

As for Cerro Porteno, they have added Fernando Romero, Luis Farina, Adrian Martinez and Rafael Carrascal to their squad list for the second half of the campaign.

Angel Cardozo Lucena has been on Copa America duty with Paraguay and will miss both legs against Fluminense.

Defender Juan Gabriel Patino is also ruled out due to an accumulation of yellow cards in the group phase.

Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Espinola, Duartes, Delvalle, Alan; Gimenez, Carrascal, Villasanti, Aquino; Morales; Boselli

Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Muriel; Calegari, Manoel, Braz, Barcelos; Martinelli, Wellington; Henrique, Ganso, Nene; Cazares


SM words green background

We say: Cerro Porteno 0-2 Fluminense

Cerro Porteno lost 1-0 and 4-0 to Atletico Mineiro in the group stage, which could provide a good barometer of how they will get on against another Brazilian side.

The Paraguayan outfit have not played competitively since May, and we can see Fluminense making that count by taking a fairly commanding lead into the second leg.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cerro Porteno vs Fluminense

Cerro Porteno
25.6%
Draw
2.6%
Fluminense
71.8%
39
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