Freiburg continue their quest for European qualification in the Bundesliga when they welcome Wolfsburg to the Europa-Park Stadion on Saturday.
The hosts remain well in the mix for the top four despite suffering late heartbreak last weekend, whilst the visitors continued to repair their disappointing campaign so far by picking up a narrow victory.
Match preview
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Christian Streich's Freiburg looked set to earn a crucial three points in their huge top-four clash against RB Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena last weekend.
Ermedin Demirovic fired in the opener for Die Breisgauer towards the end of a first half that the visitors had displayed their organised best.
Despite a complete domination of possession from Die Roten Bullen, Freiburg restricted their opponents to very little goalmouth action thanks to their division's joint-best defence, but Angelino netted the equaliser in the final minute of normal time to deny Freiburg's climb into the Champions League places.
There are plenty of positives that Streich and his players can take from the game however, and despite the setback, his side remain well in the mix for an outstanding achievement come May.
Sitting in sixth place heading into matchday 26 at the weekend, with just two points between themselves and Hoffenheim in fourth, a top-four finish remains in sight.
This despite their slight dip in form either side of the winter break, when Freiburg recorded just two wins in nine league outings, but with five wins and just one defeat in nine fixtures across all competitions since, Saturday's hosts head into this game with plenty of momentum and form behind them.
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Meanwhile, Wolfsburg recorded their third win in their last five games by defeating Union Berlin 1-0 at the Volkswagen Arena last week.
A Taiwo Awoniyi own goal midway through the first half was the difference between the two sides in a tight game of football, although a solid performance from Koen Casteels in between the posts made sure of the points during a barrage of pressure from Union in the second 45.
Having lost nine and drawn two of their previous 11 fixtures across all competitions, the recent results have quickly become some of the brightest moments of a hugely disappointing campaign for Die Wolfe.
Brief concerns of a catastrophic battle against the drop look to be behind Florian Kohfeldt's side as a result of the recent wins, with an eight-point gap being opened up between Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin in the relegation playoff spot.
For a side supposed to be challenging the likes of this weekend's opponents for a top-four spot, survival is never usually considered a target, but with Saturday's visitors closer to the drop zone than they are to their hosts in the European places, a late charge for continental qualification is highly unlikely.
Therefore, Kohfeldt and his staff are most likely planning ahead for next season already, but a strong run of form between now and May remains vital for the German to prove that he is the man capable of leading the improvements in 2022-23, as well as ensuring fears of a relegation battle do not begin to creep in once more should they take their foot off the gas in the coming weeks.
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Team News
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Freiburg's solid back line is likely to require a reshuffle on Saturday, with the impressive Nico Schlotterbeck a doubt with the knee injury that forced him off last weekend.
Manuel Gulde was also taken off late on due to a knock and is likely to miss out as well, so Keven Schlotterbeck, the older brother of Nico, looks set to deputise.
A return to the Europa-Park Stadion, and a drop in quality of opposition, means that Streich is likely to revert back to a 4-2-3-1 formation from the 3-5-2 utilised at Leipzig, which will see Nicolas Hofler return to the starting lineup following his one-match suspension.
Yannik Keitel is the only confirmed absentee, with the midfielder ruled out due to a broken toe.
As for the visitors, they will welcome back a vital component to their back line on Saturday, with Maxence Lacroix returning from a one-match suspension.
Kohfeldt is likely to return to a 3-4-2-1 setup as a result, with Lacroix returning alongside John Brooks and Sebastian Bornauw in defence.
Xaver Schlager made his first start in over six months against Union last weekend, whilst Lukas Nmecha returned from a four-month absence to feature from the bench following his broken ankle.
He is unlikely to start just yet though, but Paulo Otavio, William and Micky van de Ven are the only confirmed absentees, with the trio remaining sidelined for various injuries.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, K Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Hofler, Eggestein; Sallai, Jeong, Grifo; Demirovic
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Lacroix, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Arnold, Schlager, Roussillon; Kruse, Vranckx; Wind
We say: Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg
This clash is likely to be a very tight affair overall, with little to separate these two sides despite their differing fortunes this campaign.
With Freiburg returning home and possessing the greater consistency this season, we believe they will edge out their visitors with a narrow victory on Saturday should they maintain their high standards of 2021-22.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
