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Preview: Australian Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Australian Open quarter-final match between Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Ben Shelton is back in a second Australian Open quarter-final after coming through Monday's fourth-round battle with Gael Monfils, and the American faces first-time quarter-finalist Lorenzo Sonego in Wednesday's last-eight contest.

The Italian has taken down veteran Stan Wawrinka and two young sensations, Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien, en route to a maiden Grand Slam last-eight match to set up a third meeting with Shelton on the ATP Tour.


Match preview

Ben Shelton reacts at the Australian Open on January 20, 2025© Imago

Shelton continued his run of playing under three hours in rounds one, two, three and four, even though Monday's anticipated clash of two showmen ended prematurely after Monfils retired due to a back problem.

The American came out on top in two of the three tiebreaks before the veteran Frenchman withdrew down 7-6(3), 6-7(2), 7-6(2), 1-0 after two hours and 57 minutes.

Some may have considered Shelton the underdog entering his third-round match with Lorenzo Musetti, against whom he had never won on tour entering their recent match-up, and Monfils, who had momentum after notching the title in Auckland and took down fourth seed Taylor Fritz before facing the 22-year-old, but is the favourite against Sonego.

After exiting last year in round three, the 2023 quarter-finalist returns to the last eight Down Under, keen for success to reach another Slam semi-final after the US Open run two years back.

Following victories over a seeming bogey opponent and an in-form veteran, the youngest American to reach two quarter-finals in Australia since Andy Roddick did so three times from 2003 to 2005 aims to improve his 10-2 win-loss record at Melbourne Park.

Lorenzo Sonego reacts at the Australian Open on January 20, 2025© Imago

Getting the better of Sonego will be far from straightforward, especially as the No. 55 player in the world's eyes must have lit up after reaching his first Grand Slam quarter-final of his career at 29.

Although Sonego's run to the last eight will show that the Italian has beaten players ranked outside the top 100 – Wawrinka, Fonseca and Tien – and one outside the top 50, Fabian Marozsan, the four-time tour-level champion's gutsy victories over Fonseca, who stunned Andrey Rublev in the opening round, and Tien, victor in five over Daniil Medvedev in round two, have impressed.

The Italian player's adeptness at reeling off aces — his 59 outrank the other seven men left at the Aussie Open — and ball-striking, which saw him hit 57 winners against Tien, will ask questions of Wednesday's American opponent.

Facing his highest-ranked opponent in this year's draw, Sonego will look to beat the player seven years his junior, keen to set up a possible semi-final against countryman Jannik Sinner or home hope Alex de Minaur.

Having only reached the third round once Down Under, the 29-year-old, who typically could not crack the opening two rounds in five of six previous appearances in Australia entering this year, has broken new ground and aims to notch a semi-final berth in his 26th main draw appearance.


Tournament so far

Ben Shelton:

First round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 7-6[3] 7-5 7-5
Second round: vs. Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-3 6-7[4] 6-4
Third round: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 3-6 6-4 7-6[5]
Round of 16: vs. Gael Monfils 7-6[3] 6-7[3] 7-6[2] 1-0 ret

Lorenzo Sonego:

First round: vs. Stan Wawrinka 6-4 5-7 7-5 7-5
Second round: vs. Joao Fonseca 6-7[6] 6-3 6-1 3-6 6-3
Third round: vs. Fabian Marozsan 6-7[3] 7-6[6] 6-1 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Learner Tien 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1


Head To Head

Roland Garros (2023) - First round: Sonego 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-3

Cincinnati Masters (2022) - Round of 64: Shelton 7-6(5) 3-6 7-5

Sonego and Shelton have split previous matches on the ATP Tour, with the Italian claiming their only Grand Slam meeting, while the world No. 20 won their only hard-court match in Cincinnati three years back.

The 29-year-old is 0-5 against players in the top 20 (13-34 overall), with his only triumph in the previous 13 being a four-set victory over Ugo Humbert at Roland Garros last year.

However, the world No. 55 has a 52-33 win-loss record against left-handers, winning six of his recent ten match-ups with lefties, including his fourth-round victory over Tien this year.

Beating Tien was his fourth consecutive Grand Slam success over a left-hander, a streak that includes defeating Wednesday's opponent, though three of those victories were at Roland Garros.

Shelton has been beaten in two of his previous three matches against players ranked outside the top 50, having previously clinched eight wins on the trot in such encounters, though he claimed his most recent to defeat Carreno Busta in four sets in round two in Melbourne.


SM words green background

We say: Shelton to win in five sets

Shelton's booming serve and ostentatious style will meet Sonego's ball-striking in what could be another thrilling tussle.

The American enjoys playing Down Under, and the 22-year-old is backed to record his 11th victory at Melbourne Park to advance to a first semi-final in Australia and second overall.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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