Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 46.47%. A win for Canada had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Canada win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
