Serie A | Gameweek 36
May 9, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
AC Milan3 - 1Bologna
We said: AC Milan 2-1 Bologna
Italy's top comeback kings lock horns, just ahead of their Coppa Italia contest in Rome: Milan have earned 19 points from losing positions this season - including three last time out - while Bologna have battled back to gain 18. So, there could be several twists and turns before the home side prevail, continuing their revival and serving a blow to the visitors' Champions League dreams. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.09%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Bologna |
40.09% ( -0.66) | 25.4% ( -0.09) | 34.51% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 56.06% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.28% ( 0.54) | 47.72% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.08% ( 0.5) | 69.91% ( -0.5) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( -0.09) | 23.57% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.36% ( -0.14) | 57.64% ( 0.14) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.35% ( 0.72) | 26.64% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.11% ( 0.94) | 61.88% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
AC Milan 40.09%
Bologna 34.51%
Draw 25.39%
| AC Milan | Draw | Bologna |
| 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 4.18% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 40.09% | 1-1 @ 12% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 8.31% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.51% |
How you voted: AC Milan vs Bologna
AC Milan
74.5%Draw
16.3%Bologna
9.2%196
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 22
AC Milan
2-2
Bologna
Loftus-Cheek (45', 83')
Leao (22'), Calabria (36'), Adli (44'), Loftus-Cheek (45+2'), Terracciano (90+1')
Leao (22'), Calabria (36'), Adli (44'), Loftus-Cheek (45+2'), Terracciano (90+1')
Apr 15, 2023 2pm
