In a ding-dong battle at the bottom of the Brazilian Serie A table, Juventude will look to extend their gap over the teams in the relegation zone when they travel to face Gremio on Saturday night.
Gremio are one of those sides languishing in the bottom four, making this weekend's clash the perfect opportunity for them to drag themselves closer to salvation.
Match preview
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Juventude have known their fate would involve a relegation battle this season for the majority of the campaign, with the club making it out of the bottom half of the table only once since the start of the year.
Granted, they have managed to steer clear of the relegation zone on the most part and with less than two months of the season remaining, Juventude will be keen to secure only their third-consecutive Serie A campaign since 2006-07.
If they are to survive, Juventude must improve on their recent results, with Marquinhos Santos's side winless in their last four matches and just one victory in their previous 10 Serie A fixtures.
All but one of their six wins this season have come at home, making their visit South to face Gremio yet another potential road trip headache for the 2019-20 Serie B champions.
Like their opponents, Gremio have struggled this season and enter the weekend five points from safety with relegation to Serie B an ever-growing prospect.
Five matches without a win has confounded their position in the drop-zone, and Thiago Gomes Pacheco will be hoping his side avoid a repeat of their 2-0 defeat against Juventude earlier this year.
The defeat represented back-to-back losses against Juventude, yet their head-to-head record prior to this year has been nothing but sensational for Gremio.
They were unbeaten in the last 20 meetings with Juventude, a run stretching back to March 2011, and a return to those kinds of results will be needed this weekend if Gremio are to maintain hopes of staying in the first tier.
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Team News
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Gremio's situation has been made much worse by a number of key players picking up injuries, with four of their first-team squad absent for the visit of Juventude.
Miguel Borja (ankle), Leo Pereira (ankle), Pedro Geromel (broken toe) and Leo Gomes (ACL) will not feature for Gremio, forcing Pacheco to turn to other areas of his team.
A trio of players he will not be able to use however are Rafinha, Thiago Santos and Douglas Costa, who are all suspended for the Juventude fixture.
Similarly, the visitors will be without duo Jadson and Dawhan, who are suspended and will miss the trip to Porto Alegre.
With a less-than-convincing record against Gremio, Juventude would have been hoping for a full complement of players, yet alongside their suspended pair, Juve Papo will also be without Nicolas Castillo (back) and Marcelo Carne (knee).
Castillo and Carne may be expected to return soon, yet the same cannot be said for Elton, who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Tressoldi, Rodrigues, Kannemann; Silva, Mendes, Vanderson, Guedes, Pyerre; Alisson, Ferreira
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Quintero, Mendes, Forster; Paulo, Castilho, Ricardinho, Matheus; Wagner, Bueno, Paulinho
We say: Gremio 1-0 Juventude
It really is moving into must-win territory for every Gremio game, none more so than this weekend's clash against fellow-strugglers Juventude.
Expect a tight affair with neither side over-committing themselves and a slender home side victory in this relegation six-pointer.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 15.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
