Guatemala can book their place in the knockout stage of the Gold Cup for the first time since 2011 with a victory over Canada on Saturday at Shell Energy Stadium.

On Tuesday, an own-goal in stoppage time meant a 2-2 draw for the Canadians in their opener versus Guadeloupe, while Los Chapines ended a six-match winless run in the group stage of this competition by handing Cuba a 1-0 loss.

Match preview

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Earlier this week, a determined Guatemalan side looked disciplined at the back and dangerous in possession, winning a group fixture at the Gold Cup for the first time since 2011.

La Bicolor came as advertised in their opener, cutting off the Cubans' time and space on the ball while doing enough to earn three points, the second shutout in their previous three encounters in all competitions.

Scoring a goal or fewer in five successive international fixtures is far from an earth-shattering statistic, but when you can limit your opponent to just a single effort on target like Los Mayas were able to do on Tuesday, netting once is often enough.

That one goal in their previous encounter already equalled their entire output from the 2021 group stage at this competition, while they have only scored against Canada in one prior meeting this century.

If they can capture three points against the Canadians this week, Luis Fernando Tena's men would not only be in the quarter-finals, but it would also be the first time this team will have ever won two matches in a single Gold Cup.

Guatemala conceded six goals in three group fixtures at this tournament two years ago, as many as they have given up in eight matches played so far this year.

They have never beaten a North American side in this competition, though Los Chapines managed to keep Mexico off the scoresheet in a friendly last year, playing to a 0-0 draw.

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It was not the start John Herdman was hoping for as his Canucks dropped points on home soil for the first time since their opening World Cup qualifying fixture in the Octagon, when they settled for a 1-1 result against Honduras.

Some of the usual suspects that we are used to seeing wear the white and red of Canada are absent at this tournament, including Alphonso Davies, Stephen Eustaquio and Jonathan David, and there was often a lack of cohesion in their opener with many new faces playing together for the first time.

Their draw on Tuesday was the first time in nearly four years that they had failed to hang onto a second-half advantage, the previous time being at the 2019 Gold Cup when they were beaten 3-2 by Haiti in the quarter-finals.

Even without numerous superstars, Les Rouges have massive expectations on their shoulders at this tournament, and, if they lose this encounter, those expectations may not be met as a defeat combined with a win by Guadeloupe versus Cuba would put them three points back of second with one match remaining.

A defeat on Saturday would also be a less-than-ideal way for these players to celebrate their nation's 156th birthday, though this team have not lost their second match in a Gold Cup group stage since falling 2-1 versus Mexico in 2019.

Canada should be feeling good about their chances versus the Central Americans, having won four successive encounters against La Bicolor, outscoring them 8-0 over that stretch, with their last defeat to Guatemala coming in August 2004 (2-0).

Whether it is nerves or a lack of concentration, the Canucks have started slowly in most of their recent group fixtures in this competition, conceding the opening goal in three of their last four outings.

Team News

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Tena made wholesale changes to the Guatemala starting 11 against Cuba from the side that began their previous fixture versus Ecuador with Jose Ardon and Jose Carlos Pinto being the only players to maintain their place in the opening lineup for both of those encounters.

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing picked up his first cap for the Guatemalans in their opening victory, Esteban Garcia made just his second appearance, while Aaron Herrera, who plays his club football in Canada at CF Montreal, featured for the third time with La Bicolor.

After missing a penalty in the opening half Tuesday, Darwim Lom scored three minutes after the break, while Nicholas Hagen only had to make one stop to collect a clean sheet.

On matchday one Herdman gave five Canadians their first appearance with the senior side, including Zac McGraw, Ali Ahmed and Moise Bombito, with Dominick Zator and Jacen Russell-Rowe coming on as second-half substitutes.

Lucas Cavallini is now tied with John Catliff and Dale Mitchell for fourth in goals with the Canucks, while he now has six for Canada at the Gold Cup, drawing even with Ali Gerba and Dwayne De Rosario for the most all-time with Les Rouges in this competition.

Junior Hoilett set up the equaliser for Canada on Tuesday as he remains one goal behind Gerba for the ninth-most in Canadian history and two back of Alex Bunbury for eighth.

Milan Borjan is now two caps away from equalling Mark Watson for sixth all-time, Jonathan Osorio can move into a three-way tie with Bunbury and Samuel Piette for ninth in caps, currently on 65 with the national team, while Victor Loturi is the only field player on this roster without an appearance for the senior side.

Guatemala possible starting lineup:
Hagen; Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales; Castellanos, Saravia; Mendez-Laing, Sequen, Mejia; Rubin

Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; McGraw, Kennedy, Brault-Guillard; Laryea, Bombito, Osorio, Ahmed; Nelson, Cavallini, Hoilett

We say: Guatemala 0-1 Canada

If that opening fixture does not wake up this Canadian squad, then nothing will, and we believe they will have the bulk of the possession, while their youth could be a handful for the Guatemalans.

Expect Los Chapines to sit back without much attacking intention, which might work for a while, but this Canadian team have a lot of speed and attacking depth to call upon, and we believe that will ultimately make the difference.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Joel Lefevre

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