Bayer Leverkusen must win in order to keep their slim Bundesliga title hopes alive when they travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel on Saturday.
The hosts are last in 18th place with just 13 points and lost 3-1 against Eintracht Frankfurt on February 16, while the champions drew 0-0 with Bayern Munich on the same date and are in second place with 47 points, eight fewer than league-leaders Bayern.
Match preview
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Holstein Kiel were thoroughly outclassed by Eintracht Frankfurt considering they conceded three times, faced four big chances and were at the receiving end of nearly 2.5 xG before they managed to score their consolation goal in the 73rd minute.
The hosts have conceded two or more goals in 12 of their 13 most recent matches and have shipped 14 times in their past five.
Despite their dire situation at the bottom of the table, the Storks are only one point from 16th-placed Heidenheim, who occupy the division's relegation playoff spot, and that could offer them their most realistic chance of escaping demotion the 2. Bundesliga given 15th-placed Hoffenheim have 21 points.
Boss Marcel Rapp's team are winless in their last five – drawing two and losing three – and have been beaten in 15 of their 22 league outings this campaign.
Holstein Kiel boast a positive record in their last four games at home considering they have won two and drawn one at Holstein-Stadion in that time, scoring 12 while conceding eight.
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Leverkusen come into Saturday's clash having somehow failed to beat Bayern Munich, with Xabi Alonso's side missing five big chances, hitting the woodwork twice and limiting the Bavarians to just two shots all game.
Die Schwarzroten's stalemate with the league leaders was their second consecutive 0-0 draw, though they did score six times in their prior two games and found the back of the net in each of their previous 17.
The visitors must win if they have any ambition of retaining their Bundesliga crown considering they trail Bayern by eight points with 12 fixtures remaining, but there is a chance that the Bavarians could drop points on Sunday given they face third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt.
However, Leverkusen were held to a 2-2 stalemate by Holstein Kiel on October 5 despite leading 2-0 after eight minutes.
The champions have failed to achieve victory in four of their seven most recent games – drawing three and losing one – but they have triumphed in nine of their last 12 in the Bundesliga.
Alonso's team have failed to win their past three outings on the road having drawn two and lost one, though they won each of their previous four while keeping three clean sheets.
Team News
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Holstein Kiel are unfortunately dealing with several injury issues, with defenders Patrick Erras, Colin Kleine-Beckel, Carl Johansson, Ivan Nekic and John Tolkin ruled out.
Their absences could mean centre-backs Timo Becker, David Zec and Marco Komenda will be flanked by Marko Ivezic and Lewis Holtby.
Armin Gigovic, Nicolai Remberg and Magnus Knudsen may be stationed in a midfield three given Finn Porath is not expected to be in the matchday squad.
Forwards Alexander Bernhardsson, Benedikt Pichler and Steven Skrzybski are all unavailable, so perhaps Phil Harres and Shuto Machino will start up front.
As for Leverkusen, defender Jeanuel Belocian will miss the rest of the season, as will attacker Martin Terrier.
Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba and Piero Hincapie are likely candidates to be fielded in a back three, and they could play behind a double pivot of Granit Xhaka and Exequiel Palacios.
In attack, Florian Wirtz is certain to start, and he may be joined by Nathan Tella and Victor Boniface.
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Weiner; Becker, Zec, Komenda; Ivezic, Gigovic, Remberg, Knudsen, Holtby; Harres, Machino
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz, Boniface
We say: Holstein Kiel 2-5 Bayer Leverkusen
It would be highly unusual if the champions were held to another goalless draw, especially as they have continued to create chances in the final third.
Holstein Kiel have been poor from a defensive perspective, and it would be surprising if they kept Leverkusen at bay.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
