Independiente del Valle look to remain unbeaten at home this season when they open up their Copa Libertadores campaign on Wednesday against Defensa y Justicia from Estadio Ruminahui in Ecuador.
Los Negriazules are coming off a 2-1 win against 9 de Octubre on Sunday in league play, their eighth straight match without a defeat in all competitions, while Defensa y Justicia have gone winless in their last five domestic league games in Argentina.
Match preview
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The appointment of Renato Paiva as manager has brought new hope to the team from Sangolqui, who are looking to shake off their image as perennial losers.
Since taking over on Christmas Day 2020, the Portuguese coach has won nine of his first 13 games in charge, which included an upset of the 2017 Copa Libertadores champions Gremio in the qualification stage of this competition.
The Ecuadorian side have never won their domestic league, finishing no better than second back in 2013, which was also their best-ever finish to a Copa Libertadores campaign back in 2016.
However, there is good reason for optimism as they have performed much better on the international stage of late, winning the Copa Sudamericana in 2019 and finishing as runners-up in the Recopa Sudamericana last season.
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In his third spell with Defensa y Justicia, Sebastian Beccacece has not enjoyed the same kind of success as his Portuguese counterpart in 2021.
Currently sitting in seventh place in Group B of the Argentine Primera Division, El Halcon are looking to make it past the group stage of this competition after missing the knockout stage by a single point last season.
The team is made up primarily of local players from around their home country, as all but three members of their current roster are from Argentina.
Like their opponents, the Argentine side have fared a lot better internationally, winning the Copa Sudamericana last season and capturing the Recopa Sudamericana earlier this year under former manager Hernan Crespo.
Independiente del Valle Ecuadorian Serie A form:
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
Independiente del Valle form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
Defensa y Justicia Argentine Primera Division form:
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
Defensa y Justicia form (all competitions):
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
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Bolivian centre-back Jose Maria Carrasco has missed the entire season with a knee injury.
Goalkeeper Jorge Pinos has missed the last 10 games for the Ecuadorians with a fractured hand.
Moises Ramirez will start in goal, having maintained three clean sheets in relief.
Los Negriazules will rely on Christian Ortiz for more contributions after scoring both goals in their 2-1 win over Gremio to get to this stage of the competition.
On the opposite side Defensa y Justicia are healthy heading into this tournament and will hope leading scorer Walter Bou can regain his form having gone without a goal in his last four matches in all competitions.
Braian Romero has stepped up with two goals in his last four matches while winger Francisco Pizzini leads the team with five assists in the Argentine Primera Division.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Schunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Sanchez, Pellerano, Ortiz, Uca, Faravelli, Caicedo; Montenegro
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Benitez, Frias, Meza, Britez; Loaiza, Fernandez, Rotondi, Bou, Pizzini; Romero
We say: Independiente del Valle 1-1 Defensa y Justicia
The opening match of this competition for both teams could be more challenging for the officials than anyone else as the Argentines have received eight yellow cards and three red cards in their last three games.
These sides score about as much as they concede although neither side are all that clinical in front of goal, and while qualification is a distinct possibility for both teams, neither will want to take an unnecessary risk given they each have five more games to play after this one.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 54.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 21.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.34%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
