We said: Feyenoord 3-1 AZ Alkmaar
Although AZ are managing to cling onto fourth spot in the league, their recent form has been poor. With that in mind, we can only predict a convincing home victory, even if Slot does decide to make a couple of alterations.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 52.05%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.