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Premier League | Gameweek 19
Dec 30, 2024 at 8pm UK
Old Trafford
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Man Utd
0 - 2
Newcastle


Martinez (61')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Isak (4'), Joelinton (19')
Schar (80')

Man United statistically safe from Premier League relegation despite Ruben Amorim admission

Man United could be relegated, Amorim admits - what do the numbers say?
© Imago
Sports Mole looks at whether Manchester United are at a statistical risk of Premier League relegation following Ruben Amorim's stark admission.

Manchester United are not immune from relegation from the Premier League following Monday's 2-0 home loss to Newcastle United, Ruben Amorim has claimed.

The Red Devils suffered three straight home league defeats for the first time in 45 years against the Magpies, who struck through Alexander Isak and Joelinton in the first half at Old Trafford.

Eddie Howe's men dominated their pitiful foes from the off, and while Man United demonstrated improvement after Kobbie Mainoo replaced Joshua Zirkzee with just 32 minutes gone, the damage was done early on.

The Red Devils' fourth defeat on the spin in all competitions leaves them in a lowly 14th place in the Premier League table, only seven points clear of the relegation zone and nine points below recent conquerors Newcastle in the Europa League place.

Speaking to the press at full time, Amorim insisted that Man United must consider the possibility of demotion from the top tier, saying: "Our club needs a shock and we have to understand that. It is also why I speak of relegation.

"That is really clear [the possibility] and we have to fight. It is a really difficult moment, one of the more difficult moments in the history of Manchester United and we have to address it with honesty and to be clear with that, we have to fight [in] the next game."

Do the numbers suggest Man United could be relegated?

Man United head coach Ruben Amorim on December 30, 2024© Imago

At this mid-point of the season, it is easy to calculate the total amount of points Man United are on course for; with 22 after 19 matches, the law of averages suggests that they will end up with 44 points when all is said and done.

The Red Devils' current meagre total is already their worst after 19 Premier League matches; six fewer than the 28 they managed in the 2019-20 season under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, but a revival in the second half of the term saw them finish with 66 points and in third place.

A 58-point haul in the 2021-22 season currently represents Man United's worst total in the Premier League era, but if history tells us anything, the Red Devils should just about be safe from the drop if they carry on the same trajectory.

Since the 38-game season came into effect, the highest points total for a relegated team was West Ham United's 42 in the 2002-03 season; in that year, Bolton Wanderers coincidentally finished 17th with the 44 points that Man United are on track for.

The consensus is that 40 points is enough for a team to retain its top-flight status, although recent data from the Premier League suggests that 36 could suffice, and Nottingham Forest survived with as little as 32 points last season.

Brentford and Everton also stayed up without hitting the 44-point mark last season, so Man United should not suffer an unthinkable demotion to the Championship, although breaking unwanted records has been their theme this season.

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Ben Knapton
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Man United head coach Ruben Amorim on December 30, 2024
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool18143145172845
2Arsenal19116238172139
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest1911442619737
4Chelsea19105438231535
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle1995532211132
6Manchester CityMan City199463226631
7Bournemouth198652923630
8Fulham197842825329
9Aston Villa198562831-329
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton196942928127
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1973941281324
12Brentford197393335-224
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd196492126-522
15Crystal Palace194872027-720
16Everton183871524-917
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1944113142-1116
18Ipswich TownIpswich1936101833-1515
19Leicester CityLeicester1935112242-2014
20Southampton1913151239-276


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