League One

League One | Gameweek 15

Oct 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
2 - 1
Burton Albion

Gibson (53'), Garner (88')
Garner (77')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Helm (28')
Hamer (25'), Maamria (26'), Helm (36'), Lubala (77')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burton Albion

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Burton Albion 4-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Burton Albion

Burton have been flying in recent weeks, moving from the relegation zone to the brink of the play-off spots almost in the blink of an eye. Carlisle, on the other hand, appear set to struggle this season, and we can envisage them falling to a third straight defeat on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Burton Albion
41.01% ( -0.77)	27.07% ( 0.4)	31.92% ( 0.37)

Both teams to score 49.94% (

-1.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.74% (

-1.45)

55.26% (

1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.52% (

-1.2)

76.49% (

1.21)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.5% (

-1.07)

26.5% (

1.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.3% (

-1.44)

61.7% (

1.45)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.95% (

-0.48)

32.05% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.48% (

-0.56)

68.52% (

0.56)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 41%

Burton Albion 31.92%

Draw 27.07%

Carlisle United	Draw	Burton Albion
1-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.14% Total : 41%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.07%	0-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.76% Total : 31.92%