League One | Gameweek 9
Sep 23, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Carlisle0 - 2Derby
Coverage of the League One clash between Carlisle United and Derby County.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 Carlisle
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, September 19 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Tuesday, September 19 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Derby County |
30.88% ( -0.22) | 26.57% ( -0.01) | 42.56% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 51.09% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
