We said: Shrewsbury Town 1-1 Bolton Wanderers
Had this fixture been played earlier in the season, we would have picked Bolton to win the match, just as they did in the League Cup back in August.
However, Shrewsbury have hit a good run of late, and we think that they will grab a share of the spoils this weekend in an entertaining draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 51.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.87%) and 1-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.